Will autonomous cars decimate mainstream car sales?

A Barclays analyst is predicting that the arrival of fully autonomous cars will mean mainstream car sales drop by up to 50 per cent as car ownership is no longer a necessity.

It’s clear that autonomous cars are on the way, with every car maker, and Google (and probably Apple too), working to make cars that drive themselves the future of motoring. But what will that mean for car sales?

Bloomberg are reporting on a report by a Barclays analyst which predicts that mainstream car makers will see their sales drop dramatically as autonomous cars start to become mainstream, as buyers desert car ownership in favour of on-demand transport. And there’s a lot of logic in the prediction.

As petrolheads, it’s easy to think that the ability of a car to drive itself is a useful way to get around when you’re stuck on a boring drive in heavy traffic, leaving you free to enjoy the drive when it suits. But for many drivers – perhaps the majority – driving is a chore; a necessary evil for getting where you want to go.

That fact seems to imply that if you no longer need a car to get where you’re going, then there’s no longer an imperative to buy a car.

The analyst predicts not just the reduction of the car market for mainstream makers as buyers desert them, but the end of the taxi as we know it.

The logic is that cars will be available on-demand – without a driver – to transport you where you want to go, and that will mean, for many, there is no good reason to buy.

This logic appears to apply mainly to mainstream buyers from makers like Ford and GM, as higher-end cars are more a statement than a necessity.

The Barclays analyst sees the future having four distinctive car user categories: traditional cars and pickups driven in rural areas, single family autonomous vehicles used and shared by a whole family, shared autonomous vehicles that are available on demand – like a ‘robot taxi’ – and pooled autonomous vehicles, the future equivalent of a bus.

This won’t mean the end of the private car, but it does seem a logical view of where we will be in 25 years time as computers take over the role of transporting the majority of us where we want to go. And, logically, the point could come when legislators see the need to remove humans from behind the wheel altogether.