ZEV Mandate comes in to force to disrupt the car market and drive us all in to EVs

The ZEV Mandate – forcing car makers to sell a minimum number of EVs – comes in to force today to meddle with the market and force EV uptake.

Governments messing with legislation to make consumers act in a certain way and skew the market never ends well (remember when we were all pushed into buying diesel cars?), and the idea that ICE cars should be banned by 2030 was always daft.

It seemed the government had backed away from that by pushing the date back to 2035 – although there should be no ban on ICE cars – but they countered that ban move date by declaring a new ZEV Mandate, which comes in to force today (3 January 2024).

What it means is that car makers will have to ensure 22 per cent of the cars they sell are EVs, rising to 80 per cent by 2030 and 100 per cent by 2035, or face a fine of £15,000 for every car short.

Will that mean car makers will cut the far too high prices of EVs (the secondhand market has already shown their true value with huge price drops for used EVs), raise the price of ICE models to the same level as EVs or limit supply of ICE models? They’ll have to do something with the appetite for EVs by private buyers not exactly booming.

Of course, some car makers, like Tesla, MG, Polestar and the raft of new Chinese EV makers will have a surplus of ‘credits’ for EVs they can flog to other car makers, but for the likes of Toyota and Lexus – long the benchmark for ‘eco-friendly’ cars with hybrid powertrains, they’re in trouble, as will be Land Rover and Range Rover, Honda, Dacia and more.

It’s all going to end badly.